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https://doi.org/10.62836/emi.v4i1.280
Jiayi Meng. (2025). Research and Simulation on Improving Methods for Optimizing Local Catering Revenue Forecast. Economics & Management Information, 1–8. https://doi.org/10.62836/emi.v4i1.280
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Research and Simulation on Improving Methods for Optimizing Local Catering Revenue Forecast

Accurately predicting catering income is of great significance for promoting domestic economic development. The traditional cointegration analysis prediction method is difficult to accurately describe the causal relationship between catering income and local economic development, resulting in poor prediction effects. This study proposes a catering income optimization prediction method based on time series. Firstly, it tests the cointegration of catering income and local economic development time series data, constructs a two-variable autoregressive model, and then uses the Granger method to test the causal relationship. Calculate the proportion of the catering industry as a direct influencing factor, and count the correlation effect to form an optimized prediction model. Taking the data of Yan’an City from 2014 to 2023 as an example, simulated by eviews 5.0 software, the results show that this model is superior to the comparison algorithm in prediction accuracy, error rate, stability and time efficiency. The conclusion is that this method can effectively improve the accuracy of catering income prediction and contribute to local economic research and planning.

catering income prediction; time series analysis; cointegration and Granger test

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Supporting Agencies

  1. Funding: Not applicable.