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Driving Mechanisms and Industrial Outcomes of Inward Chinese FDI in Vietnam’s High-Tech Sectors under RCEP: Evidence from Electronics Manufacturing and Solar-Photovoltaic Supply Chains
Intensifying US-China trade tensions and the January 2022 entry into force of RCEP have together spurred a wave of supply-chain relocation. For many Chinese manufacturers, this has translated into a “China-Plus-One” production strategy, with Vietnam emerging as a primary destination. This paper investigates driving forces and industrial outcomes of inward Chinese FDI in Vietnam’s high-tech sectors, focusing on electronics manufacturing and solar-photovoltaic supply chains for the period 2018–2024. Drawing on secondary datasets including Vietnam General Statistics Office (GSO), UN Comtrade, and peer-reviewed working papers, this study calculates Vietnam’s Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) for HS 85 (electrical-electronic goods) and HS 8541 (semiconductor and photovoltaic products). Our results show RCA values of 2.88 for HS 85 and 8.44 for HS 8541 in 2022, demonstrating strong but assembly-driven export competitiveness. Firms backed by inward Chinese FDI generate roughly 75% of Vietnam’s solar-panel exports and employ half of the workforce in this sector; nevertheless, domestic localisation in electronics remains merely 5–10%. Despite strong export performance, Vietnam remains heavily dependent on imported Chinese intermediate inputs, exposing its solar exports to US trade-remedy risks. This paper offers targeted policy recommendations for Vietnamese regulators and Chinese investors, alongside limitations rooted in publicly available secondary data.
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Supporting Agencies
- Funding: This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.