Analysis of the Impact of the Special Additional Deduction Policy for Children’s Education on Families’ Fertility Intentions and Countermeasures

Analysis of the Impact of the Special Additional Deduction Policy for Children’s Education on Families’ Fertility Intentions and Countermeasures

In recent years, China’s fertility rate has continued to decline and the degree of aging has deepened. How to encourage childbirth through policy means has become a focus of social concern. The special additional deduction policy for children’s education introduced in the individual income tax reform in 2019 is regarded as an important tax tool for encouraging childbirth. This paper, based on the relevant data of population statistics and tax implementation in recent years, and in combination with the theory of income and substitution effect, public goods and human capital, and the principle of tax fairness, analyzes the internal mechanism and practical problems by which this policy affects the willingness of families to have children. The study finds that although the policy can positively encourage childbirth by increasing disposable income, it is constrained by problems such as low deduction standards, narrow coverage, a failure to reflect the rising cost of raising multiple children, and the exclusion of low-income groups, resulting in insufficient overall incentive intensity and uneven policy effects. Based on this, this paper proposes optimization suggestions such as refining standards by region and stage, expanding coverage throughout the entire cycle, strengthening multi-child incentives, and benefiting low-income families, in the hope of enhancing the fertility support effectiveness of individual income tax policies.